The development of the “Swan-Canning Estuarine Response Model (SCERM)” started since 2011 with main purposes to support decision making related to the management challenges of water quality degradation, and to help build a holistic picture of the system. By integrating various field investigations and the extensive long-term monitoring data, the system offers the potential to synthesize our knowledge of the estuarine function across a broad range of disciplines and spatio-temporal scales. Ultimately the model would also be suited to undertake forecast predications of the long-term system response to ongoing land-use and climate change and to identify thresholds of change and the level of resilience.

The model has been developed and assessed in multiple stages. The evolution of the model through these stages was based on the management needs and our evolving understanding of the SCE system. The model performance assessment suggested in its present form the model is suitable for assessing the management scenarios associated with oxygenation variations, nutrient load management and/or climate change.

Fore more details of the model development and assessment please refered to the following reports:

Hipsey, M.R., Kilminster, K., Busch B., 2016b. The Swan-Canning Estuary Response Model (SCERM) v1: Model validation and performance assessment. AED Report #R29, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia. 49pp.

Huang, P., Hipsey, M.R., Busch B., 2017. The Swan-Canning Estuary Response Model (SCERM) v2: Model validation, monitoring data assessment and real-time operation. AED Report #R34, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia. 39pp.

Integrated systems modelling has been identified as one of the research priorities for SCE management because it enables the synthesis of bio-physical data, process understanding and predictive tools to directly support decision-making (Thomson et al., 2017. Research and information priorities for estuary management in south west Western Australia. Report prepared for the Western Australian Marine Science Institution, Perth, Western Australia, 87 pp.). After the model performance assessment suggested the model was able to reproduce general water quality factors such as nutrient levels, DO concentrations, and phytoplankton biomass in response to climate and catchment forcing, the SCERM was then extended to a real-time water quality management system by integrating field monitoring data, climate model, coastal ocean model, and catchment input model.